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Trump Infection and Prediction Markets
Watch prediction markets to learn about volatility in crowd-sourced forecasts.
I suspect a ploy. I guess “we’ll see what happens.”
What can we learn in the near term? Let’s use this as a learning experience to see how announcements like this affect prediction markets. It will be a good study of volatility in forecasting.
Here’s a screenshot of PredictIt’s election market outcome.
I’m not reading too much into this yet. Will be interesting to see how the time series looks over the next few days, particularly in terms of volume.
According to PredictIt, the market hit the hardest was the timing of the supreme court confirmation.
This gem from last year is a good thing to reread: Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math. I bring it up because some of the insights from that forecasting debate are relevant to thinking about prediction markets as engines for crowd-sourced forecasts.